The 30 and the 5 are ICANN registry rules and are the same everywhere for generic top-level domains. The stage before them is registrar policy and is the one that varies, which is exactly why it cannot be planned around.
Registered
Until the expiry date on the registry record
The expiry date that matters is the registry's, not your registrar dashboard's cached copy. Since 28 January 2025 the definitive source for gTLD registration data is RDAP, which returns it as JSON under an event with eventAction of expiration.
Renewal grace period
Set by your registrar — often up to about 45 days, sometimes zero
This is the window nobody can quote you a number for, because it is registrar policy rather than ICANN policy. Many registrars keep the name resolving for a while, then park it on an advertising page. Some suspend DNS immediately. The name is still recoverable at the normal price here, and this is the cheap place to notice.
Redemption Grace Period
30 days
ICANN requires every gTLD registry to offer a 30-day redemption period after the registrar deletes the registration. During it the registry must disable DNS resolution and refuse transfers. Your website and your email are both off, and only the registrar that deleted the name can restore it, at your request, for a restore fee.
Pending Delete
5 days
There is no action available in this window. The name cannot be renewed, restored or transferred. It is a countdown, and drop-catching services are already queued for the moment it ends.
Dropped
Immediately after Pending Delete
The name returns to the pool, first come first served. If it had traffic, backlinks or a mail history, it is caught within seconds by an automated service and resold. This is how a small business ends up buying its own domain back at four figures.